• OUTLOOK: Nws National Hur

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Mon Sep 23 08:59:00 2024
    ABNT20 KNHC 231132
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
    Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
    northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear
    favorable for further development of this system. A tropical
    depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as
    the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
    into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development
    is expected.

    Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
    rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
    Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
    Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
    system, as watches or warnings will likely be required later
    this morning for portions of these areas. Later this week, the
    system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern
    Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern
    Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

    Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
    A tropical wave located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde
    Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
    development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
    form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves
    westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
    tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Tue Sep 24 08:23:00 2024
    ABNT20 KNHC 241153
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
    Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

    Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
    Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
    organization in association with a tropical wave located near the
    Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
    gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
    likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to
    west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
    under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
    under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

    $$
    Forecaster Bucci
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Wed Sep 25 09:34:00 2024
    ABNT20 KNHC 251152
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Helene, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

    Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
    A broad low pressure system associated with a tropical wave located
    west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized
    shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
    favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
    depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves westward
    to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical
    Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

    Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
    A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located several
    hundred miles to the northeast of Bermuda. The system is currently
    producing winds up to storm force, and environmental conditions
    could support some subtropical or tropical development over the next
    several days as the system moves generally eastward, remaining over
    the open waters of central Subtropical Atlantic. Additional
    information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found
    in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
    can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
    KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Kelly
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Sat Sep 28 09:04:00 2024
    ABNT20 KNHC 281138
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Isaac, located several hundred miles east of the Azores, and on
    Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central tropical Atlantic
    Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene, located inland over the Ohio River
    Valley.

    Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
    A broad and elongated area of low pressure, associated with a
    tropical wave, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
    near and to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
    conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
    and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle
    part of next week while the system moves toward the west and then
    northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

    Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
    An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea in
    a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
    for additional development thereafter while the system moves
    generally northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during
    the middle to latter part of next week as the system enters the Gulf
    of Mexico.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
    header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
    Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
    header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Sat Oct 5 07:47:00 2024
    ABNT20 KNHC 051122
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
    Hurricane Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
    Ocean.

    Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
    Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
    pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually
    becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected,
    and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or
    on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf
    of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move
    faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf
    of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on
    the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida
    Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
    this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
    occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over
    much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

    Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
    A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
    Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is possible
    thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
    eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or
    over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests
    there should monitor its progress.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Kelly
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Sun Nov 3 09:31:00 2024
    ABNT20 KNHC 031141
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
    Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean near the
    Azores Islands.

    Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
    Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
    a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
    Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
    depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
    moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and
    western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
    rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
    western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
    Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
    of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
    required later today or tonight for portions of the area. An Air
    Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
    system later today.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

    Near the Greater Antilles:
    A trough of low pressure a couple hundred miles east of the
    southeastern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible
    during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern
    Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to be absorbed
    into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late
    Monday, ending its chances of development. Regardless of formation,
    locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days
    across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
    eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi

    $$
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Wed Nov 13 08:55:00 2024
    ABNT20 KNHC 131219 CCA
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

    Corrected to add information about High Seas Forecasts and Gale
    warnings.

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
    A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
    continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
    Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
    tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days
    while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean
    Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance
    meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The
    system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week.
    Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should
    monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
    heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so. For
    more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High
    Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force
    Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
    later today.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
    can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
    KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Kelly

    $$
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Mon Aug 11 08:34:50 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 111239 CCA
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Corrected to fix a typo and include mention of gale warnings for
    non-tropical area of low pressure south-southeast of Nova Scotia.

    Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
    Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted and continues to
    show signs of organization with a well-defined area of low pressure
    located just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. If these
    structural trends continue, the system is likely to become a
    tropical depression or storm, possibly as soon as later this
    morning. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
    continue today across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and
    interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
    Regardless of development over the next couple of days, the system
    is expected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward at 15
    to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

    Central Atlantic (AL96):
    A weak trough of low pressure located over the central Atlantic is
    only producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
    Significant development of this system is becoming unlikely over
    the next few days as the system drifts generally northward,
    remaining over the central Atlantic.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

    Northwestern Atlantic:
    A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few
    hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. While
    current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system is limited,
    this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream
    where some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the
    next day or two. By the middle of this week, the system is expected
    to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances for further
    tropical development. For more information on this system, including
    gale warnings, see High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather
    Service.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
    can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
    KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Papin
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Sat Aug 23 09:04:58 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 231156
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
    Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has formed
    about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and the associated
    showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. A
    tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight, with
    further intensification to a tropical storm likely on Sunday while
    the low moves northward over the southwestern Atlantic. An Air
    Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low
    this afternoon. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of
    this system as watches could be still required later today. For
    additional information, including gale warnings, please see High
    Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

    East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
    Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
    a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward
    Islands. Some development of this system could occur during the
    next few days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20
    mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across
    portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on
    Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, conditions over the
    central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further
    development.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

    &&

    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
    can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
    KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Fri Sep 26 09:51:12 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 261122
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, near the eastern Azores, and on
    recently upgraded Hurricane Humberto, over the subtropical central
    Atlantic.

    Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
    Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
    association with a tropical wave located near Hispaniola, the
    Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba. An area of low pressure
    is expected to form along the wave by tonight when it moves near the
    southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical
    depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
    Bahamas over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward
    over the southwestern Atlantic.

    Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing
    in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
    and are likely to spread across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba during
    the next day or two. Interests in all of these areas should monitor
    the progress of the system. While there remains considerable
    uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system,
    there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
    impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.
    Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the
    system.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Thu Oct 2 09:43:46 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 021143
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Imelda, located east of Bermuda.

    Central Tropical Atlantic:
    A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
    next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
    another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
    development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
    westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

    Southwestern Atlantic:
    An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary
    near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida over the next
    couple of days. Any additional development is expected to be slow
    to occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida
    Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Mon Oct 6 09:31:01 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 061117
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
    A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical
    wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical central Atlantic. Environmental
    conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of
    this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
    next few days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the
    central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern Leeward Islands
    by the latter part of the week. Interests there should monitor the
    progress of this system.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Tue Oct 7 08:19:11 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 071127
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
    Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located a little more than
    1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. If these trends continue,
    advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical depression later
    today. This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
    across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of
    the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. Interests
    there should continue to monitor its progress. For more information
    on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
    issued by the National Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

    Southwestern Gulf:
    A trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula is
    producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
    This system is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later
    today, and some slow development is possible before it moves inland
    over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Regardless
    of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely
    across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern
    Mexico during the next couple of days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

    &&

    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
    can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
    KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Sat Oct 11 08:46:33 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 111146
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Jerry, located over the southwestern Atlantic about midway
    between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.

    Tropical Atlantic:
    A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the Cabo
    Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
    over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward to
    northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
    tropical Atlantic.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Thu Oct 16 19:54:47 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 162357
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    East of the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea:
    A tropical wave currently located over the central tropical Atlantic
    is associated with a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
    gradual development of this system is possible over the next several
    days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of
    development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible as the
    system moves across the Windward Islands late this weekend and
    enters the Caribbean Sea by the early to middle part of next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

    North Atlantic:
    A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently developing several
    hundred miles to the south of of Nova Scotia, Canada. This system is
    expected to drop southeastward and then turn northeastward by this
    weekend, and some subtropical or tropical development could occur
    while the system moves over the Gulf Stream to the northeast of
    Bermuda. By early next week, the system will move further
    northeastward into colder waters, ending its chances for
    development.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Sun Oct 19 08:55:59 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 191144
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Near the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
    A tropical wave currently located near the Windward Islands is
    producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall
    and gusty winds are expected today continuing through Monday morning
    across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as the system
    moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph into the eastern Caribbean
    Sea. Additional development is forecast to be limited over the next
    day or two, due to the fast forward motion of the wave. The system
    is then expected to slow down over the central Caribbean Sea during
    the middle portion of the week, where environmental conditions could
    become more conducive for development. A tropical depression could
    from over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portion
    of this week.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Mon Oct 20 08:39:35 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 201148
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Caribbean Sea (AL98):
    A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
    a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms primarily east of
    the wave axis. The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph towards
    the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slowdown over the next
    few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
    conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is
    likely to form over the next few days. Regardless of development,
    heavy rainfall and gusty winds are subsiding for the Windward and
    Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the
    ABC Islands during the next couple of days. For more information on
    this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
    issued by the National Weather Service.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
    can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
    KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Papin
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Tue Oct 21 09:38:17 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 211126
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Caribbean Sea (AL98):
    Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that the area
    of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea appears to be
    developing a well-defined center, and is already producing winds up
    to 45 mph. A tropical storm is expected to form later today while
    it slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall and
    gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the
    next day or two. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and
    Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk
    of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this
    week. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate
    the system later today. For additional information on this system,
    including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
    the National Weather Service.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
    can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
    KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Sun Nov 16 09:06:08 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 161124
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    $$
    Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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  • From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Sun Nov 30 10:27:19 2025
    ABNT20 KNHC 301126
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Hagen
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