ACUS11 KWNS 272209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272208=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-280015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0879
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Areas affected...portion of eastern Oklahoma into central/southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272208Z - 280015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms may bring a low-end risk for
isolated gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado through this
evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 2200 UTC, regional radar imagery depicted
scattered thunderstorms extending from eastern Oklahoma into
central/southern Arkansas immediately downstream of a mid-level
perturbation and in close proximity to a surface low analyzed near
the Red River. A couple of storms have shown signs of transient,
weak rotation and/or modestly enhanced velocity signatures over the
past hour. Expectation is for this activity to continue for another
few hours amid a moist and weak to modestly unstable environment
(MLCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg). While marginal deep-layer shear
(generally less than 30 kts) and poor mid-level lapse rates, as
sampled by the 18z SHV observed sounding, are largely expected to
temper updraft intensity, high precipitable water contents
(1.75-2.00+ inches per latest mesoanalysis) may promote occasional
water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated gusty winds (largely in
the 40-45 mph range). A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out,
especially where a stronger low-level updraft can interact with
marginally enhanced low-level shear to the north-northeast of the
surface low. Given the expectation for any severe threat to remain
isolated and limited in magnitude, a WW is unlikely.

..Chalmers/Guyer.. 05/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-jD3bV_m37nWOZFOicJr8qYEMf7ygaGD3KtAS_ogCk-VvM4hrwztMQw07lnTMpq4q5FwEpnIv= RWsYYcWxDquPkqtD-E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 33349352 33839395 34119450 34489535 34579588 34629611
34819626 34999637 35449636 35759624 35989594 36129550
36139465 35989397 35779343 35329282 34899240 34529225
33969207 33469212 33199226 33029250 32879294 33009321
33349352=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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