ACUS11 KWNS 270721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270721=20
TXZ000-270915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0872
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246...

Valid 270721Z - 270915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246
continues.

SUMMARY...Embedded strong to severe gusts remain possible with an eastward-moving MCS. A downstream watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KHGX indicates an MCS
tracking eastward across southeast TX at around 30-35 kt. Given the well-established cold pool, around 40 kt 0-6 km shear (per VWP
data), and moist inflow (lower 70s dewpoints) for this system,
strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) will remain possible as
it continues eastward over the next couple hours. However, given the orientation of the midlevel trough and accompanying midlevel flow,
weakening upper-level support and increasingly line-parallel
deep-layer shear should tend to limit convective intensity with
eastward extent -- especially given the lack of a stronger low-level
mass response. Therefore, a downstream watch is not expected.

..Weinman/Smith.. 05/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6QHr0OMo3QgWEg5gKH_01md0MZtGQeVYB-XIPc07I8XqlRX1-Sa0kvSqGSeVW54SCPCOj1vf2= PGVyAam_01G_rReNYw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 28959582 29379587 29989568 30579578 30969605 31219582
31279527 31099476 30619439 29859430 29599439 29009507
28849557 28959582=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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