ACUS11 KWNS 270007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270006=20
TXZ000-270130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270006Z - 270130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts
and isolated large hail will continue for another 1-2 hours.
Downstream watch issuance is unlikely, however.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery depicts the continued eastward
propagation of a convective cluster across portions of central Texas
as of 0000 UTC. The environment ahead of this activity remains
modestly unstable (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), but stronger upper-level
flow and greater effective shear remain displaced farther to the
south, with only 20-25 kts of effective shear analyzed across the
discussion area. This is likely inhibiting the overall intensity and organization of this cluster, with radar data from KGRK indicating
that the system outflow continues to largely precede the ongoing
convection. Despite this, some potential for strong to occasionally
damaging wind gusts may continue for another couple of hours.
Isolated large hail may also be possible, particularly with any more
robust, discrete convection that precedes this cluster. More limited
mid-level lapse rates (generally less than 7 C/km) and the
aforementioned modest effective shear should largely limit this
potential, however. Trends will continue to be monitored, but
downstream watch issuance is currently unlikely.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-EmT8S3PLbBqbrLUs3zbY-DNLy_kcLAiyQYU6CY1lvzZWP5u54hP-VgV5ysSfqE0RIPes7En2= twYNvAEqdyavhIndss$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29899907 30249921 30429898 30799845 31009832 31419840
31519840 31689824 31759795 31829752 31759705 31449685
31119678 30609686 30199716 29989755 29859811 29819861
29899907=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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