ACUS11 KWNS 020043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020042=20
MOZ000-020245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into central Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 87...

Valid 020042Z - 020245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 87 continues.

SUMMARY...At least some increase in tornado risk appears possible
over the next 1-2 hours along and south of a surface warm front.

DISCUSSION...While nocturnal low-level cooling and weak low-level
lapse rates may be tempering overall strengthening, recent
convective development has shown some signs of modest
intensification across portions of western Missouri during the past
30-60 minutes. Per latest mesoanalysis, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and
around 35-40 kts of effective bulk shear should continue to support
further strengthening of developing discrete/semi-discrete
supercells over the next couple of hours. A corridor of enhanced
tornado potential appears possible near and south of a surface warm
front across portions of western/central Missouri where backed
surface flow, 50-100 m2/s2 0-500 m SRH, and mid-60s F dewpoints are
noted via latest mesoanalysis and surface observations.=20

Some uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution given
limited strengthening observed thus far and the potential for storms
to move north of the surface boundary due to deep-layer flow
orientation. Should a supercell or two become better established,
however, at least some increase in tornado potential, along with a
threat for large hail and severe wind gusts, appears possible over
the next 1-2 hours, especially as the nocturnal low-level jet
continues to strengthen.

..Chalmers.. 04/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9kEieTekhfKaE57RqhyXqw6DrFzGczfi20pVeqDSaUbCsMvOcM5JLFnmX-KdYAh_vhCA0KVn8= DzpTyGkw2x6vnQvW38$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 37789422 38019450 38399446 38609427 38729394 38709345
38589286 38449218 38279188 38119181 37769200 37609242
37579307 37789422=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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