ACUS11 KWNS 012226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012225=20
TXZ000-020030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 012225Z - 020030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of producing large hail
and severe wind gusts will increase over the next few hours. A watch
will be needed within the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite and radar data show a
gradual increase in high-based convection developing on the
immediate hot/dry side of the dryline extending across southwest TX.
While it is unclear if these early storms will pose a substantial
severe risk in the near term, a deeply mixed boundary layer and
around 40 kt of midlevel west-southwesterly flow orthogonal to the
dryline could promote a couple severe downburts and sporadic large
hail with any storms that mature. With time, additional storm
development is expected as modest large-scale ascent influences the
area and enhances surface convergence along the dryline.
Elongating/mostly straight hodographs (effective shear increasing to
around 50 kt) and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate
surface-based buoyancy should support a mix of semi-discrete
supercells and clusters with a risk of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts. With time, these storms should grow upscale and
pose a continued/increasing risk of scattered severe winds. While
less likely, a tornado or two will also be possible as storms
intercept a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet this
evening/overnight. A watch will likely be needed within the next
hour or so.

..Weinman/Leitman.. 04/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4xkJ9KBUFcuTu4efWPozYWh8z4oJ_yryh37o0GfR-pXNEvI8ekWXCDUb6cJYv2l1s77BiFfUw= rK5bS5hJN4dNKKBRsA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30710247 31280220 32680128 32980071 33090007 32979954
32569930 31759948 30290075 29890145 29850220 30110252
30710247=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)