ACUS11 KWNS 011951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011950=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-012145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Areas affected...Northern Virginia...central/eastern Maryland...far
southern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 011950Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms may develop and move
east off of the Blue Ridge. Isolated wind damage may occur with the
strongest storms. Limited coverage of stronger activity limits
confidence in the need for a watch this afternoon. Trends will be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...The morning sounding from Dulles showed a rather modest
moist layer. Accordingly, dewpoints have had a tendency to mix into
the low/mid 50s F this afternoon. With ample surface heating,
however, 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE has developed. Convection has
increased within the Blue Ridge and has shown some deepening
recently. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may eventually
evolve out of this activity. Deep-layer shear is only around 30 kts.
Convection that is able to mature will likely only be marginally
organized. The primary hazard with storms this afternoon will be
damaging winds gusts on account of the modestly dry/well-mixed
boundary layer.

..Wendt/Hart.. 04/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!746UqGpKGGcg4DVPSfS4bYt4IoHIGPK2dFknLtWdSESwpDFYpb2Biw5Uiku8HNlWmxCKnOn3s= mk9zL-UmGPWkNfwXV0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37927928 38377939 39697843 39937759 39867655 39737608
39067604 38227693 38127772 37927928=20


=3D =3D =3D
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