ACUS11 KWNS 312253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312252=20
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-010015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Southern New York into western Connecticut

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 312252Z - 010015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorms will spread across the Hudson
Valley into western Connecticut this evening. Severe thunderstorm
watch is being considered.

DISCUSSION...An elongated MCS has matured across portions of Upstate
NY early this evening. Leading edge of this activity is spreading
east and will soon advance across the Hudson Valley, aided in part
by an expanding precip shield. While the downstream air mass is not particularly unstable, strong westerly flow will contribute to this
MCS spreading toward western CT. Severe thunderstorm watch may be
warranted downstream.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 03/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_GQclmfKDqzAkBGiRRdMbZ4YTya3LVdO1Uu4MeZxk06fnE1luQohEjSZuR__i6R3_I6MkCHCP= M_rszeZRZwutiE8jN4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 42807539 42737320 42087322 41797459 42077643 42807539=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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