ACUS11 KWNS 312136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312135=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-312330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...New York - Northern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79...

Valid 312135Z - 312330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will spread east
across ww079 this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain the
primary concern.

DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm clusters, including a few
supercells, have developed well ahead of the primary low-amplitude
short-wave trough currently advancing across the Ohio Valley. Most
buoyant air mass is holding across the southwestern half of the
watch where MUCAPE is approaching 1000 J/kg; however, instability is considerably weaker downstream across the Hudson Valley and this
will likely contribute to gradual weakening along the leading edge
as the convection begins to spread east of the watch over the next
few hours. Until then, large hail and damaging winds may accompany
the more robust updrafts, especially across the southern half of the
watch.

..Darrow.. 03/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-u8sUYl7eepws33K91wvRW68Ub6tdj7eLYzAbNmvi4nD4KEH6nURFp7il29MRXBLUR_4d5McJ= CtPos5gt6K2w1KnswY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

LAT...LON 43147971 43187455 41877453 41867974 43147971=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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