ACUS11 KWNS 311749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311749=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-312015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0307
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...parts of southwestern through the southern tier of
New York State...northwestern Pennsylvania...and northeastern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 311749Z - 312015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Organizing thunderstorm development accompanied by a risk
of damaging wind gusts, and perhaps potential to produce a couple of
tornadoes, appears increasingly probable through 4-6 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of early day convection, substantive
boundary-layer destabilization is underway in response to modest
boundary-layer moistening and insolation, southeast and east of the
Lake Erie vicinity. This is occurring downstream of broad mid/upper
troughing progressing across the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes
region, in the presence of broad lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, south of a sharp remnant frontal zone across the Lake
Ontario through southern New England vicinity.=20=20

A small cluster of vigorous thunderstorm activity is already
underway across Ontario, to the north of Lake Erie. This appears to
have developed near/south of a remnant cyclonic vorticity center
migrating toward Lake Ontario, which convection allowing guidance
suggests may contribute to additional development across
southwestern through the southern tier of New York by 20-22Z. The
lake breeze may support additional development to the southeast of
Lake Erie, as west-southwesterly low-level flow begins to strengthen
across the lower Great Lakes (including to 40-50+ kt around 850 mb),
downstream of a low-amplitude frontal wave migrating across Lower
Michigan into southwestern Ontario.

Although potential for sustained discrete thunderstorm development
remains uncertain, low-level hodographs may become conducive to the
evolution of low-level mesocyclones with potential to produce a
couple of tornadoes, in addition to damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr/Hart.. 03/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_5TXaA6JfLAE4WpLa41GjaXOEmzpA-fLKjPxyLBKIfcDhl6N4panwM105jSGbdvjz6_5d0hEO= vcfRycHP4qmRa69zm8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 42697874 43247843 43007702 43167592 42617537 42297600
41877815 41417967 41288056 41598115 42187968 42697874=20


=3D =3D =3D
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