ACUS11 KWNS 310636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310635=20
MIZ000-310800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...north-central Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 310635Z - 310800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat will continue this morning.

DISCUSSION...Several elevated supercells have developed this morning
north of a warm front across north-central Michigan. These storms
are being fueled by around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE within a zone of
moderate deep-layer shear. In addition, strong isentropic ascent is
giving additional support despite the only modest instability. A
broad zone of 60 to 65 knot low-level jet around 1km (as sampled by LOT/MKX/IWX/DTX VWPs) is supporting the storms north of the front.
As the low-level jet continues to weaken/veer through the overnight
hours, expect these storms to become less intense.=20

1 and 1.5 inch hail reports have been received thus far and expect
some isolated threat to remain for a bit longer. However, by 9-10Z,
expect any threat to mostly wane.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 03/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6aQvrsJrbRf_7rJ2yKD6S1Fxa2S3bZJungattT7kewfe9bv5lqYDdwXfeYyPLKA0THalc-yIm= FVJmveVDAx2KRT8hnE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 44578624 44618548 44398379 44238311 43998300 43718337
43608488 43838628 44068656 44578624=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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