ACUS11 KWNS 310158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310157=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-310400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Midwest

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 310157Z - 310400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for isolated large hail, and perhaps gusty winds with thunderstorms tonight.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak low-amplitude
short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern SD/NE. Strong heating
this afternoon allowed the boundary layer to warm significantly and
this led to steep 0-3km lapse rates south of the front from eastern
NE into eastern IA. 00z sounding from OAX supported this with near
dry adiabatic lapse rates through 3km. As a result, isolated
high-based thunderstorms developed earlier this evening but have
struggled somewhat until the last hour or so. It appears a
decoupling boundary layer and strengthening LLJ may be partly
responsible for more robust updrafts from Cass into Guthrie County
IA. Current thinking is elevated convection may gradually increase
in areal coverage along an east-west corridor from central IA toward
southern Lake MI. Forecast soundings suggest parcels will likely be
lifted near 850mb and this will be supported by both the veered but strengthening LLJ, and the weak upstream short wave. Hail is the
primary concern with this activity.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 03/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_qC0lAeWv-7GyWXt6etEPwXn2dZyhkt3X180IuaVrSLHxCQlDU-eZeHXjKDbxFs0Pc5ZGCQrH= KYxFUq6ecnQ2hGLh3g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...OAX...

LAT...LON 42049513 42739084 42788805 41818795 41329149 41149513
42049513=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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