ACUS11 KWNS 282221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282221=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-290015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Texas into central and
southwestern Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 634...

Valid 282221Z - 290015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 634 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms, including a couple of
supercells posing risk for severe hail and potential to produce a
tornado or two, will continue developing southeastward across the
region through 7-8 PM CDT, before diminishing.

DISCUSSION...The southeastward advancing cold front appears to be
rapidly overtaking the preceding narrow corridor of stronger
instability across the mid/upper Texas coastal plain into the Texas
Piney Woods. However, model output suggests that boundary-layer
moisture advection and southeastward spreading mid/upper forcing for
ascent will support sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous thunderstorm activity east-southeastward into and through much of
southwestern and portions of central Louisiana during the next few
hours.

This is likely to include continuing generally discrete thunderstorm
activity. Low-level hodographs are still rather modest to weak, but
strong deep-layer shear is more than sufficient for supercells
posing a risk for severe hail, with at least some potential to
produce a tornado or two into the 00-01Z time frame.

..Kerr.. 10/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5yBvG1tIJQy9-_gNJZ_RbidfmcWdrxeMQo5ZSMU_xVq3m61iZcr4rHFSywZlMs6tVK0gWnNWO= rTIN-ONOwfg0Fu4LNE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 32229389 31519254 30179188 29589343 29409485 30019533
30669483 31659447 32039419 32229389=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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