ACUS11 KWNS 281949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281949=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-282145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Areas affected...east Texas and west Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 281949Z - 282145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across east Texas should increase
in coverage and intensity. Some tornado potential will exist with
any sustained supercell thunderstorm this afternoon across the
region. Conditions will be monitored for issuance of a tornado
watch.

DISCUSSION...A cold front with a preceding wind shift is moving east
across east Texas this afternoon. Ahead of this wind shift, surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70Fs and low 80Fs, with
upper 60Fs dewpoints. As midlevel lapse rates modestly steepen
through peak heating, mixed-layer CAPE values up to 2000 J/kg should
develop across east Texas and far west Louisiana. Large-scale
kinematic fields are also quite strong, with effective-layer shear
on the order of 50-65 knots across the area.

Showers and thunderstorms presently developing along the
aforementioned wind shift should deepen and increase in coverage as
they encounter the increasing instability. Given the forecast degree
of instability and the overall deep-layer shear profile, supercells
will be possible with any discrete storms. With time, increasing
forced ascent from the eastward moving cold front should promote
upscale growth into one or more linear segments.=20

Low-level wind fields are expected to strengthen slightly this
afternoon and evening ahead of the surface front, supporting
effective-layer storm-relative helicity on the order of 100-200
m2/s2 for any supercell moving slightly south of east. Forecast
soundings indicate that with time, continued moistening of the
boundary layer will eventually lead to nearly saturated low-level
profiles and extremely low LCLs. With ESRH on the order of 200 m2/s2
and very low LCLs, supercells (both isolated and in a line) as well
as any linear segments will have the potential to produce tornadoes.


Trends will be monitored this afternoon for indication of sustained,
robust convection ahead of the surface front. If/when this occurs, a
tornado threat may evolve and a tornado watch would likely be
warranted. Convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Marsh/Barnes/Bunting.. 10/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!60htmPlzf-smcs8Ylv7sOyurn9_-SfVoI9oJmLQ5YpB6a8ytuimOmXo9uL_hYcdxZhXyBev6I= 6bbnhE76TJ-bvPJv0o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 30079471 30039497 29969522 29929540 29959559 30119577
30239581 30429571 30649555 31249510 31799474 32419421
32339297 31809275 30879305 30539358 30219434 30079471=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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