ACUS11 KWNS 122312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122311=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-130045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
Areas affected...southeast MS and southwest AL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...6...
Valid 122311Z - 130045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5, 6 continues.
SUMMARY...Primary tornado threat will persist near the warm front,
especially with discrete/semi-discrete supercells that cross/remain
anchored along it. A strong tornado is possible.
DISCUSSION...Several supercells have occurred over the past hour,
mainly from parts of south-central MS into southwest AL. The
environment will remain quite conductive to low-level rotation,
especially near/along the wavy west/east-oriented warm front that
extends roughly from Simpson County, MS to Montgomery County, AL.
Discrete and semi-discrete supercells that can continue to
regenerate across eastern LA into southeast MS will be the most
likely candidates for eventually sustaining a longer-lived tornado
as they impinge on the vorticity-enriched warm front. Overall setup,
with peak STP having increased to a 3 as of 22Z, should favor
potential for a strong tornado.
The northern extent of the tornado threat will be limited by cooler temperatures. Per early afternoon observed and RAP forecast
soundings, as storms move north of the 65-66 F isodrosotherm, the
tornado threat will diminish. Surface winds deeper into the warm
sector across LA are slightly veered and modulating to some extent
low-level hodograph curvature.
..Grams.. 02/12/2025
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-4lNLOWhk2QpYlic2DqA4u3PRDkzjAXvCfZdCeeBgoMuvGJIbKxnWUZXhhGTNe4HTTuZIiTdJ= OzxaR1wR2__LEkWP-Q$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31109067 31898980 32218923 32268857 32268711 32168681
31958668 31688672 31578694 31168782 30768868 30578947
30609048 30749082 31109067=20
=3D =3D =3D
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